But the note cautioned against treating AI as an “immediate fiscal windfall.” Before productivity fully kicks in, governments face upfront costs that could strain budgets already burdened by post-pandemic debt. Government spending explicitly earmarked for AI remains modest—often only a fraction of a percent of GDP—but a sea of hidden costs could make the transition much more difficult for budgets to handle.
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Tellingly, Trump did not come back with an offer of sweeteners to promote investment. Instead, he threatened to block ExxonMobil investment in Venezuela.